Leadership Challenge

May hasn’t started well for Keir Starmer as results from the local council elections show a surge for the Greens and Reform and all other parties losing out or treading water.

In Scotland, the SNP held on to power but still need one of the other parties to help them steer though policy decisions.

For both Scotland and the rest of the UK the challenges are pretty real. The results of Brexit, Trump tariffs and general economic stagnation are causing all issues to come to a head. I doubt that Keir Starmer will see June let alone Christmas as leader.

The heart of the problem isn’t really politics its economics – particularly GDP stagnation or decline in most parts of the country outwith London. Ageing population, NHS rising costs and an ageing population are all adding to the challenges globally but many other economies have some level of growth, the UK really doesn’t seem pro growth.

2026 GDP forecasts for the UK peg around 0.8% slightly behind EU at 1.1% and the US at 2.3%. Really none of these are great but inflationary shocks are round the corner for the average UK consumer due to the war in the Straits of Hormuz and global uncertainty.

I am not sure anyone else as PM will make much of a difference but the voters and now the Labour Party want a change and it’s likely to come.

In my world of business I don’t remember a time when businesses are failing or giving up at such a rate, even around 2008 or after the Dotcom bust.

In Malta tourism and construction are big parts of the economy and although there is a lot of complaining about building work and immigration we have 3.6-3.8% GDP growth which is much higher than the rest of the Eurozone.

Ross Greer seems keen to introduce free bus travel in Scotland (like Malta) but this is heavily. In a small dense country like Malta it costs the government €100m per annum to offer residents free bus travel, but congestion is still pretty high so not sure the environmental benefits are great.

As you will see from the photo – free = high usage and standing room only!