Trading in uncertainty

I just checked my trading account on number of trades made in 2025 versus 2024.

I generally buy and hold stocks and certainly don’t day trade or move in and out of stocks. I made 13 trades in the entire year of 2024 both buy and sell so really not many, the main moves were to sell Tesla which I did in February 2024 and trading out of Nvidia into Berkshire Hathaway in late 2024. I have traded 5 times in 2025 so far so well above average!

I have now sold a substantial position in Microsoft and put most of that into Berkshire Hathaway in the short term certainly while any trade war kicks off!

I considered holding cash but realistically inflation is likely to rise and I think that there is safety in BRK as it held a lot of cash at the end of 2024 and I expect the selling to have continued in Q1 so they will be well balanced between cash, equities and private businesses. They trade at a low PE and are still heavily exposed to the US. They have started increasing the position in Japan but it’s pretty pedestrian but also safe.

I am still in AMZN and META so feel I have enough US tech exposure but have definitely balanced to lower growth stocks which feels safer.

I am comfortable that I have hunkered down for a bumpy period until the markets work out how to read Trump and prepared for any US recession that might happen do to trade wars with Canada, Europe and Mexico for starters?

Just to remind you that things happen in cycles, the top of the dotcom market was on 10th March 2000, 25 years ago. Japan entered recession around this time as reported at the time

I don’t think things are as bad as they were in 2000 as valuations are much lower than they were in 2000, but uncertainty causes flight to safer assets and I am calling the top of the market!